When will we reach the 2 billionth project?

NotK3ndricAltAgain

So it took us about 17 years from the official release of Scratch 1.0 to get to the 1 billionth project. (that was a long journey!)

Considering it took us about 17 years, let’s do the math.

Very simple math, though. (does this even belong in AT now???)

2007 + (17*2) or 2024 + 17 equals 2041.

So if I’m doing the math correct, will we reach the 2000000000th project in 2041? I certainly don’t know.

BigNate469

Most likely no- the rate at projects are created went up a lot around the release of 3.0, and increased even more in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It's only been going up since.

GlitchedThrough

Well, it isn’t necessarily so cut and dry.
2007-2024 had a much smaller average user base than 2025-2041 is likely to have, and said user base also created way less projects.
Remember, Scratch will continuously grow, and users will leave. So, we’d have to factor in both factors, as well as the average projects created by the average user over a set period.
However, I don’t feel like doing the necessary math or tests at the moment. But, its entirely possible we’ll get 2 billion before 2035.

ninjaMAR

Someone can make a regression based on the data from https://scratch.mit.edu/statistics/

Mryellowdoggy

Remember that the rate at which projects created isn't linear. It will fluctuate over time. According to https://scratch.mit.edu/statistics/ projects shared increased about 130% over five years (2019-2024) (This is an approximation not a real number)
Scratch grew an average of 26% per year by this rate.
I don't have recent statistics regarding how many projects are shared but about 2.7 million were shared per month six months ago.
So, my math says Scratch will reach 2 billion in about 2 years.
This is very oversimplified and very approximate, so don't take this too seriously, but hopefully this helps you get an idea of a general time frame.

Last edited by Mryellowdoggy (Jan. 3, 2025 22:28:10)

leidymateo

Well, we Reach 2B projects between aug 2028 to nov 2030.

Last edited by leidymateo (Jan. 5, 2025 01:33:02)

davidtheplatform

ninjaMAR wrote:
Someone can make a regression based on the data from https://scratch.mit.edu/statistics/

Graph: (trendline in yellow)

The trendline is:

180828 + -9487x + 109x^2

Sanity check: the integral from 0 to 208 of the trendline is roughly equal to the actual number of shared projects

The antiderivative of the trendline is:

1/6 x (1084968 - 28461 x + 218 x^2)

When the statistics were generated there were around 1,050,000,000 total projects, and 164,307,034 shared projects, or 0.156 shared projects per project. So when there are 2,000,000,000 total projects, there will be roughly 312,965,779 shared projects. Solving the antiderivative for this value, we get 249 months after 2007-03, or January of 2028.

i know the trendline is messed up, google sheets doesn't let me set the y intercept to 0 so i can't fix it

ninjaMAR

davidtheplatform wrote:
(#7)
snip

how did you import the data from the statistics page?

davidtheplatform

ninjaMAR wrote:
davidtheplatform wrote:
(#7)
snip
how did you import the data from the statistics page?

The graph is an svg, so I just used a regex on it

imfh

davidtheplatform wrote:
ninjaMAR wrote:
davidtheplatform wrote:
(#7)
snip
how did you import the data from the statistics page?
The graph is an svg, so I just used a regex on it

You can also just get the data in JSON format from: https://scratch.mit.edu/statistics/data/monthly/

Edit: Looking at the data, I don't think it is totally complete. It looks like the statistics only include shared projects. Here's a graph with a 3rd degree polynomial regression.

Last edited by imfh (Jan. 4, 2025 17:57:03)

BigNate469

imfh wrote:
Edit: Looking at the data, I don't think it is totally complete. It looks like the statistics only include shared projects. Here's a graph with a 3rd degree polynomial regression.

Yeah, it doesn't. However, you could probably roughly figure out a unshared project graph by finding a project that was shared on a day, and looking at its project ID, and that will give you the rough number of total shared + unshared projects at the time. Repeat until you get to project 104.

davidtheplatformtest

imfh wrote:
davidtheplatform wrote:
ninjaMAR wrote:
davidtheplatform wrote:
(#7)
snip
how did you import the data from the statistics page?
The graph is an svg, so I just used a regex on it
You can also just get the data in JSON format from: https://scratch.mit.edu/statistics/data/monthly/

Edit: Looking at the data, I don't think it is totally complete. It looks like the statistics only include shared projects. Here's a graph with a 3rd degree polynomial regression.

What's the equation for this regression?
never mind

Last edited by davidtheplatformtest (Jan. 5, 2025 05:08:31)

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