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Win the mustang - V1.0
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This project is a simulation of the game show 'Let's make a deal' with following rules:
~ You're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats.
~ You pick a door, say #1, and the showmaster, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat.
~ He says to you "Do you want to pick the door #2?"
The question is:
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of door?
The answer is: "Yes, you should switch!".
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'Win the mustang' allows 2 modes:
~ game show:
the game is repeated 18 times in a row. The situations in the simulation and in the reality are identical.
~ monte carlo:
the game simulation runs 10000 times.
The numbers 1, 2, 3 represent the doors.
Click on them for selection.
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Internet:
http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty-Hall_problem
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For german scratchers:
Internet:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ziegenproblem
Literature:
Gero von Randow: Das Ziegenproblem -
Denken in Wahrscheinlichkeiten -
Rowohlt Taschenbuch Verlag
Norbert Henze: Stochastik für Einsteiger - Vieweg Verlag
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Curated by SCMB1:
3.13.2010
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If you stay, the chance you'll win the Mustang is 1/3, because, well, you have a 1 out of 3 chance of winning it. If you switch, then here's what happens: The host ALWAYS shows you a door that has a goat. So now it's narrowed down to 2. When you switch, there's a 1 out of 2 chance that you'll get it. This means that when you stay, you have to pick the mustang, but when you switch, you have to choose a goat.
1/3+1/2<1... what about 1/6?
Gosh, I wonder what I'll do with all these Mustangs. *Sells them on eBay for 2 cents each* <-EPIC PHAIL.
Very good simulation! Me: won 11, lost 7 :)
I lose with 8-10 In the switch strategy!!! Really!!!
The probability for a distribution with 8 x win and 10 x lost with the switch strategy is 2,89 % (Bernoulli process) Aristoteles already said: 'It's probable that an improbable event happens!' ;-)
2/1
won 16 :) lost 2 :)
Won 1152 lost 555
Oh yeah I remember this problem from the book "The Curious Incident of the Dog in the night" or something along those lines. Good book.
won 28 lost 1
Hey i won 15 times and lost 3 times. Its very fun.
i always win
i won!
rigged, I always win
Fortune has its mystery... Darkchocolate complains he could start a goat farm! What about you and starting with an own 'mustang racing team' in Daytona? :D
This is a paradox.
Sure! Because the common sense lets think that the probabilities are '50:50' after opening the first goat door. ;-)
this game reminds me of the game lets make a deal
Of course, this is exactly the game 'let's make a deal'.
There is something with the chances of winning isn't there. First of all there is a 1/3 chance of picking it, but then after that I reckon that if you switch you are actually more likely to win, even though is should be 1/2 when one of the doors is eliminated. Switching should overall be the best option:)
Nice realization of a known problem, grandloup. 12 wins, 6 losses with switch strategy. Perfect result! I remember a fierce discussion years ago in "Die Zeit" and other magazines, where several mathematicians questioned the correctness of the switch strategy.
Thanks for the nice comment, Sam, and thanks for having added 'win the mustang' in your gallery. Indeed 'Die Zeit' has participated in the discussion around the Monty-Hall-Problem in Germany. I recommend the book of Gero von Randow 'Das Ziegenproblem - Denken in Wahrscheinlichkeiten' to interested german people. This is a wonderful and diverting introduction to the theory of probabilities. v.R. points out and explains clearly tricky situations. v.R. is 'Die Zeit'-correspondent in Paris today.
(view all replies)wow nice work :D
Many thanks!
Wonderful! Congrats.
Thank you very much. I'm glad that you appreciate 'win the mustang!'
I'm so bad, I could start a goat farm!
Don't despair, Darkchocolate! It's perhaps the start of a big business as a gentleman farmer... 20 goats in the farm, one mustang in front of the door! :D
Eh, not bad by todays standards, grandloup.
This is so much fun! it was #1 4 times in a row, then when I clicked # 1 it was # 3, the one I was trying earlier
This is so cool!
Awesome! Wonderful game, fun and lots of strategy! Congrats for the great work!
Thank you very much for the compliment. I'm glad that you love 'win the mustang'. Thank you also for having added this project in your wonderful gallery 'VFS games'.
(view all replies)I WON THE MUSTANG!! *Cries with joy* wait...NOOOO I CANT DRIVE YET *Cries with misery*
Have a dream, Caramellstar: You are sitting on the rear seat and your chauffeur is driving... :D
(view all replies)I am curating this because it is a really cool representation of the problem.
Thank you very much for having been selected by the curator. I'm feeling very honored!
(view all replies)I agree.
love it. Wonder simulation!
Awesome simulation! We just learned about thins in math class!
Can you please consider (link to project) Thanks a bunch.
Many thanks, I'm glad that you love it!
(view all replies)Oops... I meant "this," not "thins."
wonderful simulation. I love it!
Thanks!
Nice! By switching, I won about twice as much as I lost. Great simulation!
Thank you for your nice comment!